So it has finally happened, the emails are written, rucksacks packed and good luck messages read, and finally, the chorten respected and the mountain blessed. Both teams are on their way to the summit and there is absolutely nothing more we can do but sit and wait, eat our nails and send our prayers to the gods..
For David this represents the culmination of 3 years of planning and heartache and the one opportunity to truly make it worthwhile. For the others, it is possibly their one and only opportunity to attempt an 8000m summit. There are lots of pressures for different reasons and over the next 4 days the climbers will have to fight these gremlins and at the same time stretch themselves to their physical limit of endurance and for what? Five minutes on a summit the size of a tea tray.
Some think climbers mad and cannot understand why anyone would want to put themselves through such pain. At times I can agree, but you have all at some stage stood on top a mountain or hill and felt that overwhelming sense of achievement. Pitting your wits against the elements and overcoming all obstacles on your way. Having the ability to make tough decisions in even tougher environments helps you become stronger and may just make the difference when on operational duty.
To give you a better idea of the weather over the next few days I have decided to copy our Met Office forecast so you can all see how we work out whether it is a good time to climb or not. The RAF team in HighWycome have been supplying us with the weather forecast since we left the UK and we have been very grateful for their help. In reality they do 90% of the work and it is down to us to interpret what it means. Without sound and reliable forecasting you are standing yourself into danger and cannot make sensible decisions. We have also been using an independent website that was passed to us by the Spanish team http://www.meteoexploration.com/mountain/forecasts.html . We then compare the two forecasts to the actual weather we have been experiencing and plan accordingly. If you have no interest in meteorology then I apologise and please skip to the end to find out who is where on the mountain.
If you have time please study both forecasts and see what you would do. On the Meteoexploration site use Everest/Makalu for our geographical information. Remember our teams hope to summit on the 18th and 19th May.
General Forecast for 24 hours from: 0000 Z, 16 May 08:
Weather: Dry start, cloud building late morning with a chance of isolated snow showers during the afternoon and early evening.
5000 M Wind (Free Air): Variable mainly 280 05-10
Max Temperature at 5000 M: PS 10 Min Temperature at 5000 M: MS 06
7000 M Wind (Free Air): 260 25-30
Max Temperature at 7000 M: MS 10 Min Temperature at 7000 M: MS 18
8500 M Wind: 250 30-40 Temperature at 8500 M: MS 23
Height of Freezing Level in Free Air: 4800 M
General Forecast for 24 hours from: 0000 Z, 17 May 08:
Weather: Showers probably developing more widely than previous days, with the risk of thunder, but should mostly clear away after dusk.
5000 M Wind (Free Air): Variable mainly 270 05-10
Max Temperature at 5000 M: PS 11 Min Temperature at 5000 M: MS 06
7000 M Wind (Free Air): 250 20-25
Max Temperature at 7000 M: MS 10 Min Temperature at 7000 M: MS 17
8500 M Wind: 260 30-40 Temperature at 8500 M: MS 23
Height of Freezing Level in Free Air: 4800 M
General Forecast for 24 hours from: 0000 Z, 18 May 08:
Weather: Dry start, more limited cloud development during the day and just a small risk of a snow during the afternoon.
5000 M Wind (Free Air): Variable mainly 280 05-10
Max Temperature at 5000 M: PS 10 Min Temperature at 5000 M: MS 06
7000 M Wind (Free Air): 250 25-30
Max Temperature at 7000 M: MS 09 Min Temperature at 7000 M: MS 17
8500 M Wind: 250 30-40 Temperature at 8500 M: MS 23
Height of Freezing Level in Free Air: 4800 M
General Forecast for 24 hours from: 0000 Z, 19 May 08:
Weather: Similar to previous day.
5000 M Wind (Free Air): Variable mainly 280 05-10
Max Temperature at 5000 M: PS 10 Min Temperature at 5000 M: MS 06
7000 M Wind (Free Air): 260 25-30
Max Temperature at 7000 M: MS 10 Min Temperature at 7000 M: MS 17
8500 M Wind: 230 30-40 Temperature at 8500 M: MS 24
Height of Freezing Level in Free Air: 4700 M
You will see that the Meteoexploration site has a lot more information to hand. Do not be fooled by graphs. Just because it is in colour doesn’t mean that it is accurate! As it happens we have been monitoring the site for some weeks and do have a lot of faith in the information and believe that in conjunction with the Met Office we have some very useful tools.
If you look at the wind speeds at the different altitudes you can see that everything in blue is good and red is bad. As a rule 40Kns or @ 60kms wind speed is the accepted maximum for summiting mountains.
The RH or Relative Humidity gives you a good idea of the chance of cloud and at what altitude (Compare the millibars to the altitude).
If you look at the meteogram link you will see a long complicated summary page. This is actually very useful because if you scroll towards the bottom you will see cloud cover and precipitation. When used in conjunction with the relative humidity, this helps Kate decide whether she will get a view or not.
So in a nut shell that is the Meteorology apart from the fact that the actual weather we seem to be getting is 12 hours later than the forecast!
As with all things lady luck plays her part and similar to back home when you eagerly look at the forecast for the weekend on a Monday, it will often change. Bring a large mountain range into the equation and then you can appreciate just how good a job our support is doing.
If weather isn’t your thing the teams are dispersed as follows:
Summit Team 1: Matt Hing, Matt Skuse, Molly (and Duck), Lara and Stew are safely at Camp 3 on the Makalu La at 7400m.
Summit Team 2: Dave Tait, Ang, Kate and Tom are at Camp 2 at 6400m.
Percy has been sent back up the mountain to take some better pictures. He is at Camp 2.
That leaves me home alone on email, blog, weather, media and radio watch. Luckily Percy should be back tomorrow and we will also be joined by Air Vice Marshall Kurth who will be visiting us having deserted from the Junior Trek. No time to get bored as there is a lot of tidying to be done……… Cook Boys!!!
Posted by Dickie